Note from the Editor:- This is a must read article written by a friend of mine from Tigray the brilliant Ermias Amare.
TPLF’s last-man standing
By
Ermias Amare
November 30, 2019
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Photo Debretsion
Gebremichael, the veteran TPLF chairman and acting regional president (Photo
credit Ethiopia Insight)
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With Abiy Ahmed as Prime
Minister and the end of Tigray People’s Liberation Front’s hegemony, Ethiopia’s
political climate has become saturated with anti-Tigrayan sentiment that has
contributed to the isolation of the former northern powerhouse.
As a result, the region’s
acting president and TPLF chairman, Debretsion Gebremichael, has received
unprecedented support and praise, looked up to almost as the region’s savior.
Despite the scars of economic deprivation his party imprinted on the region
over the past two decades, the events of this past year led to public
acceptance of him, giving the leader the benefit of the doubt in several
regards.
These events have also
increased the complexity within Tigrayan internal politics that poses new
concerns for the region’s leadership, as different interest groups assert
themselves in the political sphere.
Tigray’s politics are
shrouded in the ambiguous predicament of its ruling party, TPLF. This is now
embodied primarily through Debretsion, who secured his leadership position in
the party after heavyweights were sidelined at a meeting in November 2017.
While this meeting represented the deepest tehadso (renewal) since 2001,
Debretsion has maintained the party’s politics of ambivalence and, from the
outside, it remains difficult to comprehend its strategy.
One question is which actors
have risen to prominence within the past year that could sway the party’s
pendulum? It is critical to identify who gained influence, as this helps define
Debretsion’s challenges. Currently in Tigray, the embattled region’s leader is
spread thin between three categories: the power hungry, the affluent elite, and the old guards of Tigrayan politics and TPLF.
These three broad groups
have all established media and social media platforms to try to mobilize people
behind their interests, and have all gained significant support bases in
Tigray. The categories are not mutually exclusive, as their interests overlap
at times. However, as they try and exert significant pressure on Debretsion, it
has pulled him in different directions, impaired his judgement, and led to
inconsistent decision-making. The leader has been forced to try to accommodate
the ascendant interests and movements in order to reassert and maintain his
power.
Power mongers
The power-hungry category
primarily comprises Mekele University academics and ethno-nationalists whose
interests are for Debretsion to maintain hostile relations with the central
government as well as with his constituents, leaving his leadership
economically and politically hollow, and creating an opportunity to eventually
usurp power. Those that fall into this category have strategically gained the
support of the masses in Tigray by sensationalizing issues and spreading
nationalism.
This group is critical of
TPLF and its administration of Tigray in the past 28 years, pointing to
widespread nepotism and cronyism, and the abandonment of the Tigrayan masses.
They use fear tactics by centering discourse on the violent events of the past
few years, despite discontent and unrest occurring nationwide.
This politically ambitious
group also criticize the absence of nationalist leadership, implicating that
TPLF’s role in this regard is insufficient. In relations with the rest of the
federation, they bargain via threats of secession (although this is seen as
highly unlikely by some commentators) and threats that Ethiopia is destined to
collapse without Tigray.
However, it is important to
note that the claims made by this group are hypocritical; since power is the
ultimate goal, this rhetoric is used in order to resonate with the people. Once
they have successfully gained their objectives, Tigray will likely be back to
square one. All relevant discourse and rhetoric focused on Tigray’s isolation,
secession, and Tigray-Eritrea relations will probably cease once political
power has been achieved. Most newly emerged parties such as Baytona and Salsay
Woyane fall into this category, as well as local civic organizations such as
SebHidri and pro-secession groups.
The Money Men
The Tigrayan elite class and
the influence of their wealth also form a distinct group whose interests
Debretsion must acknowledge but not succumb to. These economic class vessels of
the region, who mostly still live in Addis Ababa, have been pushing for
Debretsion to remain defensive and continue to challenge the central
government, until the pushing out of investors and elites comes to a halt. This
group has been labeled the “developmental investors” (ልምዓታዊ ባዓል ሃፍቲ) by Debretsion’s regime. It includes large-scale
general contractors and multimillionaire investors.
Individuals in this group
depend on their wealth—whether it be in Addis Ababa or Mekele or kept abroad—in
order to influence the political dynamics. They have historically been
extremely privileged with a strong sense of entitlement, believing that they
are the sole saviors of the region and the key to Tigray’s economic prosperity.
They participate in peace processes led by Abiy or in fundraising (i.e. Tigray
Development Association), while displaying solidarity with Tigray through
investments. Although this is directed towards their own personal gain and
benefit, as is the case with much charity, it is delivered under a veil of
patriotism. They feel as though TPLF owes them for their contributions, despite
the wealth they accrued while the masses in Tigray were suffering.
As aforementioned, the
prominence of this group and their influence stems from their prosperity. As
long as their investment opportunities are constrained under Abiy Ahmed’s
government, they will continue to manipulate and sway Debretsion, playing the
ethnic card to threaten calling it a day with Ethiopia.
However, compared to other
influential political groups in Tigray, the affluent elite have endorsed the
recent change under the premise that damage could have been significantly
worse. Their concerns swing on how the turmoil has the potential to impact
their businesses, not the survival of TPLF.
In general, this group has
not sustained close relations with Debretsion, but have kept him at arm’s
length, while ensuring to stay up to date on the politics of Ethiopia and
Eritrea. They are opportunists, ensuring that they are at least defended and
praised by Debretsion. In comparison to the politically power hungry, this
group craves economic power.
Old Guard
The third distinct group
with influence that acting president Debretsion must deal with are those who
have been involved in regional politics for years, primarily emanating from
within TPLF. The group is commonly referred to as the “old guards.” They
continue to stand firm in their belief that they are the most knowledgeable
regarding Ethiopia and its politics. They act as prophets yet make political
miscalculations by relying on bogus news and social or electronic media
tabloids like and Wurayna and Aiga Forum.
With the people despairing
at the central government’s failure to bring stability, they believe a restoration
of the status quo ante would bring an end to the problems. Compared to the
politically and economically power hungry, the old guards pose a larger danger
as they pursue both political and economic power.
Appeasement
Debretsion and his
administration’s attempts to appease each of these groups has been done at the
expense of the rest of Tigray’s population. Torn between accommodating the
interests of these influential actors, the leader has failed to fulfill the
basic needs of the people in regards to fair wealth distribution, freedom of
speech, and demands for local administrators to be drawn from the community, to
name a few.
In addition to positively
influencing the regional government’s ability to serve its people, they also
have not applied pressure on TPLF for internal reform. For example, while the
federal government released tens of thousands of prisoners as part of a
political amnesty, Tigray region did not. In general, the three groups ignore
political prisoners languishing in Tigrayan prisons. Some of them have,
however, campaigned for the release of federal “political prisoners” such as
Biniam Tewolde, Abiy’s former INSA colleague, using a social movement called
Global Movement for the Liberation of Tigrayan Political Prisoners (“ወፍሪ ሓርነት”)”.
The campaign is ironic given
that the first two groups were responsible for persuading TPLF to go on the
post-2010 arrest spree that was corrected last year with the amnesty, and the
third group of the old guards were the ones that directed the arrests.
Debretsion has kept his
region peaceful until now. But, there are urgent multifaceted challenges
regionally and nationally that need to be addressed. It is time for the region
to move beyond its authoritarian past and build a democracy that matches the aspirations
of its people and supports its development. Rather than try and become a
coercive leader, Debretsion should work out the disposition of the power
players and devise an appropriate strategy so TPLF can avoid becoming dominated
by one or another faction.
If he cannot properly lead
his party and pass key decisions, it indicates that no party will be able to
cut a deal on matters of national interest without having the full support and
approval of these three groups. This predicament will have the far-reaching
consequence of impairing the bargaining power of Tigray in its dealings with
other regions and the federal government.
In the interim, there
appears to be strong support for Debretsion that may boost his confidence, but,
if key political reforms are not introduced, the current system will not
produce a stable political order in Tigray. Political and governance
improvement have been long delayed. There is a pressing need for a new covenant
involving all elite groups representing the dominant narratives of statehood in
Tigray to formulate a new way of handling differences peacefully.
Tigray has presented itself
as unified during the transition when in actuality the political scene in the
region is complex and fragmented. Each of the three main groups are confident
in their ability to secure the power they are pursuing, continuously attempting
to influence Debretsion. The acting president is now faced with the challenge
of standing his ground, addressing the interests of the influential groups, and
serving as the leader for all the people of Tigray.
(Ethio Semay blog)
